Brace for extra-warm weather through 2022: study :: Kenya

The Dave Johnson coal-fired power plant is silhouetted against the morning sun in Glenrock Wyo. on July 27

Sam Dean, chief climate scientist at New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said the paper indicated mankind will have to rely less on "fortuitously cool years" from natural processes.

The next four years will be "anomalously warm" as temperatures increase on top of the global warming trend, researchers have warned.

"There is a high possibility that we will be at the peak of a warm phase for the next couple of years".

The scientist built his forecasting system by statistical "hind-casting".

The new system now only forecasts the annual average temperature of the planet, but the researchers hope to be able to develop regional forecasts as well as precipitation or drought trends, in response to a "growing societal demand for precise forecasts and forecasts. reliable from one year to another ".

"While we can't be sure exactly how things will play out, at the moment the odds are higher for hot years", he said.

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The study concluded that there's a 58 percent chance that the Earth's surface temperature will be exceptionally warm between 2018 and 2022.

The findings also suggest that oceans will warm more rapidly than the air above land, potentially increasing the risk of hurricanes, typhoons and other extreme weather.

Climate experts who were not involved in the study have been divided in their assessment of the new forecast. "Those are more expensive to run but also use more climate physics and observational information", said Gabi Hegerl of Edinburgh University.

To do this, researchers retrospectively looked weather systems during the 1990s and used the to accurately predict the global warming pause, or "hiatus", between 1998 and 2013.

Overall, the current warming trend is expected to continue for the next five years, and perhaps even longer.

For 2018-2022, the impact linked to the natural variability of the climate will be "equivalent to anthropogenic global warming", which will thus result in an average temperature increase that is twice as high as with man-made warming alone, the main author Florian Sévellec, of the Physical and Space Oceanography Laboratory (CNRS / Ifremer), told AFP.

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