RBA Chalks Up Two Years

Australian Dollar outlook

How positive can the data - that only ever describes the past - actually become to be able to cover up the [larger] risks the United Kingdom economy is facing?'AUD Benefits from Central Bank Speculation and Risk-Sentiment Investors have found risky commodity-correlated currencies like the Australian Dollar more appealing since the end of last week, due to rising commodity prices and stronger market performance in China. "In the interim, once-off declines in some administered prices in the September quarter are expected to result in headline inflation in 2018 being a little lower than earlier expected, at 1.75 per cent".

Australia held its interest rate at a record low, where it has now stood for two years, with little near-term prospect of the central bank joining the global trend toward tighter policy. "The central forecast is for inflation to be higher in 2019 and 2020 than it is now".

The decision to leave rates unchanged was no surprise given money markets and market observers saw no chance of a move.

This could turn out to be either a source of support for, or weigh around the ankles of, the Australian Dollar. Should the implied probability of an August 2019 rate hike rise over coming months, it would lift the Dollar. There has not been an official cash rate increase since November 2010.

Changes in interest rates, or hints of them being in the cards, are only made in response to movements in inflation but impact currencies because of the push and pull influence they have on worldwide capital flows and their allure for short-term speculators. The jobless rate is now 5.4%. Weston said the kiwi dipped because the "market expected a slightly more downbeat assessment but that didn't happen".

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has firmed against the US Dollar (USD) today, rising to a level of $0.74 on the interbank exchange rate.

However, he also suggested the unemployment rate may need to fall further than was previously expected before wage and inflation pressures begin to pick up, telling the audience 5% is "conventional estimate of full employment in Australia, but it is possible that we could go lower than this".

"Looking ahead, I expect the cash rate to remain static for the foreseeable future". But before RBA hawks could get excited, Lowe added that he still sees no strong case for a near-term monetary policy adjustment. Mr Lawless said over the past two years, the average standard variable mortgage rate had actually fallen by five basis points for owner-occupiers but increased by 30 basis points for investors.

The Australian dollar is now steady against all major currencies, except the Japanese yen and the British pound. Therein contained the usual blue-sky analysis of the Australian economy, while touching on the various local and worldwide risks - primarily in the shape of concerns around private debt levels and trade-war fears.

The heads up is aimed at making sure the lower than expected CPI reading doesn't see an outbreak of speculation about a slowing economy and increase the small but growing belief that an interest rate cut might be needed rather than an increase.

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