Dollar Rises as Treasury Yields Climb

CBOE 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index

Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries climbed to the highest level since January 2014 on Friday.

Wall Street looked set to open flat to weaker, S&P500 futures indicated ESc1 .

The U.S. dollar rallied to a four-month high on Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield's climb toward the psychologically important 3 percent level spurred buying of the greenback, leaving the euro and yen lower.

That drove the gap - or spread - with German bonds to the widest in 29 years while lifting the dollar .DXY nearly half a percent. Brent crude, used to price worldwide oils, gained 0.9 percent to $74.71 per barrel in London.

The strong dollar also reflected an improved outlook on trade. That's pushing the price of gold and silver down, while aluminum producers are sinking after the Treasury Department moved to ease sanctions against Russian aluminum company Rusal.

US dollar and Euro bank notes are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, in this illustration picture taken May 7, 2017. That can slow down economic growth.

On the geopolitical front too, there was plenty to digest.

North Korea said on Saturday it would immediately suspend nuclear and missile tests, scrap its nuclear test site and instead pursue economic growth and peace, ahead of planned summits with South Korea and the United States. They also make USA dollars relatively more attractive. And when bond yields rise, it pushes up interest rates on mortgages and other kinds of loans, making it more expensive to borrow money. USA gold futures fell 0.2 per cent to US$1,336.30 per ounce.

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"We think the euro's weakness may be overdone as despite the U.S. Treasury yield spike theme reverberating in the markets over the last 24 hours, the U.S. economy is very much in the late stages of its economic cycle and a cautious ECB meeting is baked into markets", said Christin Tuxen, an FX strategist at Danske Bank in Copenhagen. These include tech giants Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft, as well as Boeing and Chevron.

Analysts expect earnings growth at S&P 500 companies of almost 20 percent in the first quarter, the strongest showing in seven years, according to Thomson Reuters data. The 10-year yield stood at 2.43 percent at the end of 2017.

Earlier this month, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research survey of fund managers concluded that if the 10-year yield rises to 3.50 percent, investors will start buying bonds while selling stocks. It has fallen 3 percent from a 2018 high above $1.2550 in mid-February.

"Another $5/barrel increase in oil will be enough for USA 10-year yields to threaten 3 percent". He said they are an opportunity for investors to diversify their holdings at a time of increased market volatility.

THE QUOTE: "The U.S. dollar has put on a compelling show overnight as the stars align on the back of higher U.S. yields and a considerable reduction in the U.S. dollar's geopolitical risk premium as an outwardly calmer mood surrounding trade and geopolitical risk takes hold", Stephen Innes of OANDA said in a commentary.

CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 108.77 yen from 108.71 yen. Heating oil rose 0.8 percent to $2.14 a gallon.

A market gauge of long-term euro zone inflation expectations, the five-year five-year forward swap, last Thursday hit its highest level since mid-March at 1.697 percent. "If inflation is rising, gold provides a hedge", he said.

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