IMD predicts normal rainfall, at 97% of LPA

Rains, thunderstorm likely in Nagpur Max temp in Nagpur is expected to be 38 degree Celsius on Saturday

Last year, the country as a whole received rainfall that was 95 per cent of its long-period average.

Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent. Addressing a press conference on Monday, Met Department Director-General KJ Ramesh said, "India is going to experience third successful normal monsoon with a quantitative figure of 97 percent (+-5) in 2018".

As 65 percent agricultural land in the country is rainfed, Monsoon plays very crucial role in the agriculture sector and Indian economy as the sector gives livelihoods to over half the country's population. It also predicted that the rain showers would be evenly distributed across the country. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts.

Rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 56% probability that rains will be normal to excess, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first stage long range forecast.

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On April 4, private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather had released similar forecast that the four-month long Southwest Monsoon which gives about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, would be normal.

IMD's SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data upto March.

A good monsoon is good news for the Indian economy.

The IMD's reasoning for the unexpected break is that it was caused by intra-seasonal variability as Pacific cyclones over Bay of Bengal pulled the monsoon currents towards them, leading to the disappearance of rains over Central and Northern India, plunging them on the brink of drought.

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