OPEC Admits United States Shale May Crash Oil Price

Oil jumps after Trump fires Tillerson putting Iran in focus

The agency said it expected supply from non-OPEC nations to grow by 1.8 million bpd in 2018 to 97.9 million bpd, led by the United States, where crude output was forecast to rise by 1.3 million bpd during 2018 to more than 11 million bpd by the end of the year.

Brent crude futures were at 64.74 dollars per barrel, up 10 cents.

The former Soviet republic is prioritizing its giant Tengizchevroil expansion plan, which accounts for about 37 per cent of the $87 billion of global oil projects approved since the 2014 oil price collapse.

LONDON-Global oil demand will likely grow faster than expected this year, partly offsetting a surge in USA shale production and keeping the market in balance, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

The IEA forecast that the company could see output fall this year to the lowest level since the late 1940s.

On Monday, the EIA said production from major US shale formations should rise by 131,000 barrels per day in April vs. the previous month to an all-time high of 6.95 million bpd. That compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2 million barrels.

However, gains were limited by a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration which showed commercial crude inventories were up by 5 million barrels, at 430.93 million barrels.

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USA crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week to March 9, to 428 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.

On a monthly basis, the producer price index that measures wholesale inflation was up 0.2% following January's 0.4% increase.

If Trump walks away from the Iran nuclear deal on May 12 (the date of the next U.S. sanctions waiver), crude oil prices are likely to rise as global supply falls.

U.S. production growth is still expected at 2.7% in 2018, up from 2.3% in 2017. But this is what's so interesting - Increased production by USA petroleum companies didn't happen overnight.

Tillerson's firing increases risks to the multilateral agreement to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities, raising questions about potential effects on output by the third largest crude oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Oil futures for April delivery have slipped below the May contract in recent days, which could be a bearish signal that discourages more investment. This selling would drive prices sharply lower. It also makes it costly for investors to roll their positions from one month to the next.

-Summer Said and Christopher Alessi contributed to this article.

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