Trade war could derail global economic recovery, warns OECD

Trade war could derail global economic recovery, warns OECD

As the USA prepares to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, a world economic watchdog is warning that such barriers will hurt economic growth globally.

The organization tweaked its outlook for Canada, warning again, about the country's housing market.

The US economy, by contrast, is seen expanding by 2.9 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next, helped by the simulative effect of tax cuts.

Growth will particularly be powered by private investment and trade picking up on the back of strong business and household confidence, the OECD said.

Pereira added that Trump's recently announced tariffs - 25% on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminium - had left the global economy vulnerable to a tit-for-tat trade war.

China and Japan were forecast to achieve yearly growth rates of 6.7 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, this year.

"This could obviously threaten the recovery".

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"Certainly we believe this is a significant risk, so we hope that it doesn't materialise because it would be fairly damaging".

Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve would probably have to raise interest rates four times this year as inflation picks up, Pereira said.

The OECD reported that the unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 years was 11.4 percent in January, down by 0.2 percentage point.

With Britain due to leave the European Union next year, its economic growth was seen easing to 1.1 percent in 2019, unchanged from the OECD's November estimate.

The OECD also revised up its forecasts for Germany and France, but remained gloomy about the prospects for Britain as it approaches the date for Brexit in March 2019.

Fiscal easing in Germany's coalition agreement was seen lifting growth in the euro zone's biggest economy to 2.4 percent this year (+0.1 percentage point) and 2.2 percent in 2019 (+0.3).

As the Chancellor prepared to update MPs on the independent Office for Budget Responsibility's latest expectations for growth and borrowing, the OECD predicted the United Kingdom would see the slowest growth among the G20 economies this year, having largely outperformed rivals since the financial crisis.

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